In the weekly analysis on 9 February, Vietnam prices will be assessed up to 8 February. For all other quotes, ICIS will bring forward the close of the assessment window to 13:00 hours Singapore/Shanghai time. In the weekly analysis on 16 February, China prices will not be assessed while Vietnam prices will be based on information collected on 16 February. Please click here for the ICIS publishing schedule.

OVERVIEW

• China PE import prices mostly stable to soft; better demand for post-holiday arrivals

• SE Asia PE prices stable to firm, regional suppliers driving price gains

• Indonesia demand deemed to have improved ahead of import quota deadline 

China’s PE import discussions were largely stable to soft. Most overseas sellers had not started sales for February-loading cargoes but scattered discussions were noted as some sellers made offers to test the market. Some buyers showed limited demand for cargoes arriving in the post-holiday period but these discussion levels were mainly at the mid- to-low ends of the assessment ranges.

In southeast Asia, PE import discussions were largely stable to firm with gains driven largely by increased offers and selling indications from regional southeast Asian suppliers.

Southeast Asian suppliers took aim at Indonesia where demand was seen to have improved ahead of the government’s implementation of import quotas for various chemical products, including PE and PP, in March.

The presence of competitive offers from a new regional supplier helped to temper some of the initial gains.

Middle East offers remained largely absent, although some suppliers are expected to announce their offers for February shipment cargoes starting from next week.

In Vietnam, limited offers and selling indications were announced firmer but bids and buying indications remained soft with eventual deals then concluded near the low ends of the assessment ranges.

In the latest price forecast report, ICIS analysts expect Asia PE prices to increase in January, mainly driven by restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Prices are also expected to be supported by increased shipping costs resulting from the recent Red Sea attacks.

The cost of Saudi-origin polyethylene (PE) is also expected to rise due to the increased feedstock costs, which could also lift Asia PE prices in the short term.

OUTLOOK

• Some China downstream producers to halt production for holidays from this weekend

• PE supply in SE Asia may increase further in coming weeks as some plants ramp up output

• ICIS analysts forecast PE prices to decrease in Feb but some rebound expected in Mar

LDPE

Click here for the list of deals and discussions for China and here for southeast Asia.

CFR China prices were based on deals at high end with the low end stable due to limited bids.

CFR SE Asia dutiable prices were assessed stable to reflect limited rangebound offers.

CFR SE Asia non-dutiable prices were assessed on offers at the low end with the high end assessed in line in limited price discussions.

CFR Vietnam all-origins prices were assessed stable in limited price discussions.

LLDPE

Click here for the list of deals and discussions for China and here for southeast Asia.

CFR China prices were based on deals.

CFR SE Asia dutiable prices were assessed on offers and selling indications in the absence of firm deals.

CFR SE Asia non-dutiable prices were assessed on deals and offers.

CFR Vietnam all-origins prices were assessed on deals at the low end with the high end stable due to limited offers. Some offers above the range had not yet been accepted by buyers and were excluded from the assessment.

HDPE

HDPE FILM

Click here for the list of deals and discussions for China and here for southeast Asia.

CFR China prices were assessed stable on limited deals, offers and bids.

CFR SE Asia dutiable prices were assessed stable, reflecting limited rangebound offers and selling indications.

CFR SE Asia non-dutiable prices were assessed on deals.

CFR Vietnam all-origins prices were based on deals at the low end, with the high end stable due to limited offers in the market this week, with rangebound deals and selling indications also noted.

HDPE INJECTION

HDPE low-MI and high-MI injection CFR China prices were assessed stable on limited deals, offers and bids.

Dutiable and Non-Dutiable CFR SE Asia HDPE injection prices were also assessed stable on limited discussions.

The HDPE injection CFR Vietnam all-origins prices were assessed stable on limited price discussions.

HDPE BLOW MOULDING

CFR China prices were assessed stable on limited deals, offers and bids.

Dutiable CFR SE Asia HDPE blow moulding prices were assessed in line with dutiable CFR SE Asia HDPE film prices in limited price discussions.

Non-Dutiable CFR SE Asia HDPE blow moulding prices were assessed on deals at the high end with the low end assessed in line.

HDPE blow moulding CFR Vietnam all-origins prices were assessed on deals at the low end with the high end assessed in line.

OTHER REGIONS

• TOPIC PAGE: War in Ukraine, gas crisis

• China weekly polyolefin inventories

PRODUCTION

Blue: expected capacity Green: online Orange: scheduled shutdown Red: unscheduled shutdown

Click here for the ICIS Live Supply Disruption Tracker.

ANALYTICS

Packaging

A change in eating habits and the growing influence of social media could be leading variables to watch out for in 2024. The growth outlook for the packaging sector is mixed, although the polymer component - which accounts for approximately half of the consumer packaging

market - is complicated and still evolving. This is because of differences in plastic reduction pledges and an inadequate recycling infrastructure. Downstream demand in the packaging industry is estimated to have been down by 15-20% in 2023. A recovery is expected to be slow given the current strained macroeconomic environment.

The US has proposed multiple regulations to reduce the consumption of virgin resin and encourage the use of recycled and recyclable resins to increase circularity. However, the cost-of-living crisis has taken its toll on the average consumer. Oxford Economics forecasts that US food and beverage output will contract 1.6% year on year in 2024. Flexible packaging is expected to perform better than rigid packaging, driven by the barrier protection segment.

Geopolitical uncertainty, the weak macroeconomy and environmental policies remain the three primary stressors for Europe’s packaging market. Downstream requirements for packaging are expected to fall due to a reduction in disposable incomes. This is a result of the cost-of-living crisis which has changed consumer buying behavior from retail shopping to a more ‘conscious shopping”.

Food and beverage output in China and India is forecast to register healthy growth. The Lunar New Year is a key event in the region and expected to drive packaging demand. Legislation on the single-use plastic ban remains a threat. Environmental pressures remain high, and brands continue to look for ways to use either less plastic or more recycled or recyclable plastics.

By Jincy Varghese, ICIS demand analyst, jincy.varghese@icis.com

UPSTREAM

• Click here for the Asia feedstocks and petrochemicals weekly summary

• Ethylene vs SE Asia LLDPE price spread narrowed this week, keeping producer margins remain under pressure

• Ethylene vs NE Asia LLDPE price spread stayed below the threshold level

Feedstock Spread – Ethylene and LLDPE SE Asia

Feedstock Spread – Ethylene and LLDPE NE Asia